---

What It Does

CLIFF detects and trades liquidation cascades in crypto perpetual futures — the structural phenomenon where leveraged traders get force-liquidated, triggering waterfall selling across correlated assets.

Two strategies operate continuously and share a compounding bankroll:

• SURF — reactive cascade shorts + predictive formation signals on ETH, BTC, SOL (3-asset fund claim, 7/7 robustness). Hourly evaluation, regime-adaptive thresholds, 59% WR.
• QUAKE — systemic fragility monitor across 50 assets. Trades elite S/A-tier cascade events when ≥5 assets break simultaneously. SURF realized profits compound into QUAKE's bankroll. 62% WR on 65 cascades.

---

Performance

SURF (reactive + predictive) generates steady returns — SURF: 3-asset WF OOS Sharpe 2.56 (ETH/BTC/SOL, 7/7 institutional robustness), 262 trades, walk-forward validated across bull, bear, and sideways regimes. Extended to 5.8 years (924 trades).

QUAKE (cascade layer) compounds on top — 65 cascades, 62% win rate, winners averaging 2-3x losers. SURF profits fund QUAKE's bankroll, which fires on elite systemic events for explosive growth.

31% long / 69% short — profitable in both directions. Directional allocation reflects structural asymmetry in crypto perps: forced liquidation cascades create stronger short alpha than voluntary buying creates long alpha.

Regime Performance

Market-neutral: profitable when BTC rose 56% and when BTC fell 27%. Not correlated to market direction — pure alpha.

---

Methodology

• Walk-forward validation (21 rolling windows, out-of-sample evaluation)
• Institutional robustness: Deflated Sharpe, Monte Carlo bootstrap, Calmar ratio, tail analysis
• 229 markets screened — only 3 have the required liquidation cascade microstructure
• Self-normalizing features — same model works across all assets without re-fitting
• Realistic costs: 4.5bps execution + slippage on every trade
• Monthly automated screening for new asset candidates

---

Infrastructure

• Execution: Hyperliquid (primary, 4.5bps taker) + dYdX v4 (secondary, 5bps taker — BTC/SOL zero-fee promo active)
• Self-custodial on both venues — no centralized exchange risk, no custodian dependency
• ETH and BTC tradeable on both venues (~$3M BTC, ~$2M ETH capacity); SOL HL-only
• Multi-venue architecture — Vertex Protocol adapter built (on hold pending venue migration to Ink/Kraken L2)
• On-chain stop losses for every position
• Persistent state — survives restarts without losing position tracking
• Automated fragility monitoring (5-minute intervals, 50 assets)
• Live dashboard with real-time P&L, Telegram alerts
• Multi-partner managed accounts — each partner gets their own HL wallet and a dedicated dashboard at cliff.surf/p/{name}; CLIFF holds agent/trade-only access (cannot withdraw), partner can revoke at any time

---

Expansion

The liquidation cascade mechanism is structural to any leveraged market. CFTC approved US perpetual futures in May 2026 — more capital entering crypto perps means stronger cascades and a larger tradeable universe.

• Multi-venue live — Hyperliquid + dYdX v4 both active. Full QUAKE cascade E2E tested on dYdX: 6 assets, on-chain stop-losses, all positions opened and closed. Combined capacity ~$3–5M AUM.
• More assets — automated monthly screening as new markets mature
• Cross-asset-class — the same physics apply to equity futures, commodities, FX margin. Crypto is where the signal is strongest; the approach is universal

---

Managed Accounts

CLIFF supports managed account partnerships via Hyperliquid's agent mode. Partners maintain full custody of their funds while CLIFF executes the same strategy on their behalf.

• Self-custodial — partner funds stay in the partner's own Hyperliquid wallet. CLIFF receives trade-only access and cannot withdraw
• Same signals — partner accounts receive the same trades as the operator, sized independently based on each account's balance
• Per-partner dashboard — each partner gets a dedicated read-only dashboard showing their positions, PnL, and trade history
• Revocable access — partner can revoke CLIFF's agent authorization at any time from the Hyperliquid UI
• Independent risk — per-account position sizing, daily loss limits, and drawdown circuit breakers

---

Live

The system is live and trading real capital on Hyperliquid and dYdX v4. Every trade is recorded with a verifiable on-chain order ID.

View live trade journal →